What is Next?
I am sure you have seen the news or at least heard about what is going on. It appears that oil has appreciated over the past year at an astounding rate. Well there is nothing like beating a dead horse so we figured we would talk about what is going on and the impact it will have on our economy.
Those who think that prices are going to come back down, I am sorry but you will be waiting for a long time. The problem is not so much supply and demand as it is speculators who are driving up the price of oil because of the weak dollar and increased demand. To think that demand will stay the same is absolutely ridiculous. According to the experts we are at the breaking point for the consumer, or close to it. Many experts predicted that consumers cannot handle $4.15 a gallon fuel…and they are right.
Americans are people who build themselves upon debt. We get big expensive cars, houses and electronic toys. Unfortunately no one actually pays with cash and more, they charge it. When someone charges their fuel or expensive toy they rarely think of the bill that is coming next, from the credit card company. What does this have to do with the price of oil, plenty. Americans are now charging the gas that they use in their big SUV’s for the demanding terrain of New York City. With the credit mess still in full swing, and it is, this is the next big thing to hit the economy.
While the Fed can print money to their hearts delights what they cannot do, for the consumer at least, is create more credit. As home equity loans sputter out borrowers will continue to use their credit for purchasing power, but a larger chunk of that purchasing power will go towards fuel. As credit lines are reached we will then see demand come down even more than it has already.
The other major problem we have is the fundamental demand for oil is high, but the supply is exceeding demand in most cases. OPEC is planning a meeting with consumer nations to make this point, OPEC for crying out loud. These are the guys making a trillion dollars a year on oil and they are saying this isn’t right? By no means am I a rocket scientist, but that tells me that the price is unwarranted.
Unfortunately $150 a barrel oil is coming and prices will never be below $3 a gallon again. Once oil companies get a taste of these obscene profits they tend to like them. Plus with China and India following in the USA’s mistakes by building an oil based economy we will see future demand spike even higher. Sadly if some of the oil projections are correct we could see the supply of oil dwindle in our lifetime - it is projected that by 2013 oil production will plateau and then decline - and $4 gallons will be the good old days. The increased demand from China and India will dwarf our reduction in oil consumption and will drive prices higher.
My point is things will not change because the industry has broken us in to higher gas prices, since Katrina. We went from saying; “$2.50 a gallon! Are you Nuts!” to “$2.50 a gallon is a STEAL!” and that number has moved, now $3 a gallon is a steal and a recent memory to. So, I foresee a double whammy coming in the near future, higher gas prices and the credit crisis spreading directly to the consumers because of their credit card debt. Makes you wonder if the Fed will give us 2% loans to make it….oh yeah thats only for the people that matter, big business. Think smaller cars and happy thoughts and it just may all go away.
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