Another $100 – $150 billion needed?

Posted by Ray on November 22, 2010 under Main | Be the First to Comment

The US banking system is still a mess no matter what the regulators and pundits say. From the Volker Rule to Basel III to fraudclosure there are issues that will have to come to ahead at some point in the not so distant future. Specifically, the Financial Times reported that because of the Basel III tier 1 capital requirements the top 35 US banks may be short $100 – $150 billion dollars. This means more capital raises for many of these banks, but don’t worry analysts say this is manageable.

Other parts of the FT’s article states that many of these banks may have to selloff $500B, in total, of assets to avoid the capital raise. The issue is that if all these banks, which the article admittedly says is not equally distributed between the top 35 banks, have to selloff $500B in assets to avoid a capital raise who will buy these assets? If the liability of these assets equals higher capital requirements buyers may be few and far between which means lower prices for the assets being sold or they will have to raise capital. Of note is the shortfall is only because of Basel III and not because of any other issue outstanding.

Remember how so many of these capital requirement issues were supposedly put to rest because of our “stress tests”? Clearly the stress tests, as has been stated time and time again, were worthless. In fact rumors are making their rounds that another round of stress tests are on the way for US banks. What is interesting about this is that the stress tests lack total credibility for 2 reasons. First, look at the EU’s stress tests which passed most banks and look what is happening in Ireland, they were a farce. Second, without good accounting rules, i.e. mark-to-market vs. mark-to-fantasyland, the stress tests are bogus. A loss is a loss and simply pretending it doesn’t exist is the most idiotic thing I have ever heard of and if investors do not do their research it can lead to major losses. In my opinion this is nothing more than state sponsored investor fraud.

What is missing out of all of these bank articles is the whole fraudclosure mess and its impact on the banks. As stated previously there is no remedy for a broken chain of title except to modify the mortgage which starts a new chain of title and eliminates the problem. There are issues with this though. First, doing nothing means that all of those MBS are worthless because there is no cash flow and the creditor cannot collect the collateral, think about that for awhile. Second, if your only option is to modify the mortgage it means that the MBS is worth less than face value. Either way someone somewhere is taking a loss and that means there may be a put back to the originating bank. When the Fed put back bonds to BoA that should concern investors… it’s the Fed telling banks you ripped us off.

If these put backs continue or escalate, which they will because who wants to take a loss on paper that was misrepresented to begin with, that could mean that banks have much larger problems than Basel III capital requirements. If the put back is widely exercised banks will need a lot more money than $100 – $150B. They might need a trillion or more, who really knows anymore? Frankly, Basel III is the last thing anyone should be worried about. People should be worried about what the put back risk is for many of these banks because the put back risk is far greater of an issue than the sub-prime crisis ever was. I believe we will find out if there are indeed “no more bank bailouts” or not. My guess is we will all be shareholders of some big banks in the near future. In the meantime I am waiting for my dividend check from our previously made, wildly profitable, insert sarcasm here, investments into GM, Citi, BoA, Ally…

Let me be clear, No more bailouts…

Posted by Ray on October 19, 2010 under Main | Be the First to Comment

The President, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and only God knows how many politicians have all said that the Fin Reg bill ends all taxpayer assisted bailouts for Wall Street. Well, the news lately will put that phrase to the test. To think that all of these foreclosures are not an issue was crazy to begin with, but throw in a little foreclosure fraud and overnight you get a $47B putback from BlackRock and the Fed… go figure.

I believe the putback situation we saw yesterday was merely the beginning and there are many more tens, if not hundreds, of billions of dollars to follow. The banking system cannot handle that type of volume, remember in 2008 it was MBS and derivatives of MBS securities that caused our little problem. There is no easy remedy for this problem, regardless of what JPM or BoA says, since we are talking basic contract law here. Now, Congress did try to sneak through a bill that would have solved the industries problem, H.R. 3808 which would make courts accept all sorts of junk affidavits, but Obama ‘pocket’ vetoed the bill. Do not think that bill went away because it can come back and probably will under a new name, but it will fail in the courts, in my opinion, remember Obama said Congress needed to fix some issues with the bill, a telling statement on his opinion.

Not only does he want Congress to merely make some cosmetic changes to it, but Obama also said that this is just a “minor paperwork snafu.” Oh, how I wish that were true, but it is not a minor snafu. I do not support homeowners who took on irresponsible loans, I have long said they should lose their homes, but I dislike actual fraud even more than irresponsible borrowers. Let’s also not forget that these same lenders often did not verify the borrower’s income either which makes this whole problem a bit ironic as lenders cut corners to give the loan and now they cut corners to foreclose on the collateral. There is a remedy to all of this, as written on Zero Hedge previously, which is a borrower accepts a loan modification which clears the title, guess how successful the HAMP will be now.

If Congress doesn’t create a fix, which they should not, banks will lose foreclosure proceedings to those defendants who decide to fight it. I do not believe anyone really knows how big this problem really is and, frankly, I would not trust anyone who attaches a number to it. After all, these will be the same people who said sub-prime loans were a nonissue a few years ago, the missed that one by a mile, obviously, so they will miss this one as well. Not to mention that this issue will once again be a global issue. Who knows how many of these bonds are sitting on the balance sheet of banks all around the world. Hell, we do not even know what outstanding derivatives are still in play with this paper.

To assume that this will pass with no real material issue to the banks is idiotic. The risk is real and the system is still very, very weak. Perhaps now we know why bank reserves are still so high, did they know this might be an issue? Probably as we know banks do not like to fess up to mistakes until, well, the global financial system is about to implode. The credibility of banks and government has probably never been so low in all of history and that is a problem especially if they need help again. I fully believe another bailout will be needed over this and that means the issues of 2008 will return in 2010 with a vengeance.

Remember, in 2008 it was really the CDO’s and CDS’s on tranches of MBS products that were the problem. We all remember senior and junior tranches that were in the headlines, but back then at least you could get the collateral back to try and sell, albeit at a much lower price. Today if these things are still blowing up and you cannot even get the collateral back that would be a total loss for the investor or bank if it got putback to them. See the problem now? It is just not the banks that have this problem, but the GSE’s as well who may be guaranteeing a lot of this junk now. The GSE’s have $5T in outstanding mortgage guarantees and some say that mortgages as far back as the late 1990’s might not have proper chain of title.

The math is enormous and this should scare people to death. Perhaps it will all go away. Perhaps judges will ignore the 200 year precedents of contract law, they did it with the auto makers, so why not now. However, if this doesn’t go away we are definitely in for a rerun of 2008 again on a much larger scale since even the government is reaching the end of their credit line. Maybe QE2 will buy these securities and that is how the problem will disappear, but if nothing is done the entire mortgage market and perhaps some well known banks are done… again, unless all our politicians lied to us.

Failure Friday: March 5, 2010 – Updated

Posted by Ray on March 5, 2010 under FDIC | Be the First to Comment

Little attention has been given to the main Friday events this year, I am guilt of not reporting on it either, which is bank failures. I guess everyone, me included, has become complacent with the fact that banks are failing at a very scary rate still. I am thinking that the Fed should have left the discount rate along as we are now up to 25 bank closures this year, 3 tonight (see below). At this rate we will see, assuming February is the example of what the rest of the year holds, we will see upwards of 180 bank failures for 2010. I thought the crisis was over?

Clearly there are major structural problems within the banking system still. Although the “too big to fails” will remain, well, too big to fail the smaller banks are up the creek without a paddle. Clearly whatever plan the administration had in mind for these smaller institutions has not worked or the problems are so severe that no one wants to talk about them. I think the latter is probably more likely than the former. Either way, these failures are a major problem especially as the FDIC is technically bankrupt, what else do you call an organization that has a substantial negative net worth? Obviously that lifeline with the Treasury will have to be tapped in order to guarantee the $250,000 per deposit.

Tonight’s winners are:

I guess the losses are not that bad, but given the sorry state of the FDIC I think any loss is bad news. So much for the FDIC’s national savings week push, why save when your bank goes out of business?

Waterfield Bank had no buyer, apparently, but the other 2 banks did have buyers. As you can see the losses are pretty severe given the asset size of the banks. All told losses could hit $808.1M if the FDIC needs to make good on the loss-share agreements, certainly some of the loss-share will be realized if not all of it. Bank of Illinois was purchased by Heartland Bank and Trust Company out of, get this, Normal Illinois and Sun American Bank was acquired by First-Citizens Bank out of Boca Raton FL.

Centennial Bank and Waterfield Bank had deposits of $1.8M and $407,000, respectively, not covered by the FDIC insurance, keep no more than the maximum insured limit at banks, especially smaller banks. There may be more closures later tonight so check back. Below are the press releases.

Waterfield Bank:

Waterfield Bank, Germantown, Maryland, was closed today by the Office of Thrift Supervision, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the insured depositors, the FDIC created Waterfield Bank, FA—a new depository institution chartered by the OTS and insured by the FDIC—to take over the operations of Waterfield Bank. The new institution will remain open until April 5, 2010, to allow depositors access to their insured funds and time to move accounts to other insured institutions.

The bank had one branch location. It also took deposits from customers via the Internet and 38 affinity groups.

At the time of closing, the receiver immediately transferred to Waterfield Bank, FA, all insured deposits of the failed bank, except certificates of deposits (CDs) and individual retirement accounts (IRAs). The FDIC will mail checks directly to customers with CDs and IRAs for the amount of their insured funds, on Monday morning, March 8.

Customers with savings accounts, checking accounts and money market deposit accounts will have access to their insured funds as usual during this transitional period. Banking activities, such as direct deposit, check writing, and ATM and debit card use, will continue as normal for the customers with demand deposit accounts until Waterfield Bank, FA, closes on April 5. At the end of this transition period, the FDIC will mail checks to customers who have not closed their accounts or transferred their funds to another institution.

On-line banking services, including bill pay, will be unavailable for transactions over the weekend; however, these systems will be active by Monday morning, March 8.

As of December 31, 2009, Waterfield Bank had $155.6 million in assets and $156.4 million in deposits. At the time of closing, the amount of deposits exceeding the insurance limits totaled about $407,000. This amount is an estimate and is likely to change as the FDIC works with customers of Waterfield Bank. The uninsured deposits were not transferred to the newly chartered institution.

Depositors with more than $250,000 at Waterfield Bank should call the FDIC at (800) 830-4735 to make an appointment to discuss the status of their funds. The phone number will be operational this evening until 11:00 p.m., Eastern Standard Time (EST); on Saturday from 9:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m., EST; on Sunday from noon to 6:00 p.m., EST; and thereafter from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m., EST.

Customers who would like more information about today’s transaction can call the toll-free number; send an e-mail to waterfieldbankquestions@fdic.gov.

Under the FDI Act, the FDIC may create a new depository institution to ensure that depositors have continued access to their insured funds where no other bank has agreed to assume the insured deposits. This arrangement allows for uninterrupted direct deposits and automated payments from customers’ accounts and allows them time to find another institution with which to do business.

The FDIC estimates that the cost to its Deposit Insurance Fund will be $51.0 million. Waterfield Bank is the 25th bank to fail in the nation this year and the first in Maryland. The last FDIC-insured institution to fail in the state was Bradford Bank, Baltimore, on August 28, 2009.

Bank of Illinois:

Bank of Illinois, Normal, Illinois, was closed today by the Illinois Department of Financial Professional Regulation – Division of Banking, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Heartland Bank and Trust Company, Bloomington, Illinois, to assume all of the deposits of Bank of Illinois.

The two branches of Bank of Illinois will reopen on Saturday as branches of Heartland Bank and Trust Company. Depositors of Bank of Illinois will automatically become depositors of Heartland Bank and Trust Company. Deposits will continue to be insured by the FDIC, so there is no need for customers to change their banking relationship to retain their deposit insurance coverage. Customers should continue to use their existing branch until they receive notice from Heartland Bank and Trust Company that it has completed systems changes to allow other Heartland Bank and Trust Company branches to process their accounts as well.

This evening and over the weekend, depositors of Bank of Illinois can access their money by writing checks or using ATM or debit cards. Checks drawn on the bank will continue to be processed. Loan customers should continue to make their payments as usual.

As of December 31, 2009, Bank of Illinois had approximately $211.7 million in total assets and $198.5 million in total deposits. Heartland Bank and Trust Company will pay the FDIC a premium of 3.61 percent to assume all of the deposits of Bank of Illinois. In addition to assuming all of the deposits of the failed bank, Heartland Bank and Trust Company agreed to purchase essentially all of the assets.

The FDIC and Heartland Bank and Trust Company entered into a loss-share transaction on $166.6 million of Bank of Illinois’s assets. Heartland Bank and Trust Company will share in the losses on the asset pools covered under the loss-share agreement. The loss-share transaction is projected to maximize returns on the assets covered by keeping them in the private sector. The transaction also is expected to minimize disruptions for loan customers.

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $53.7 million. Heartland Bank and Trust Company’s acquisition of all the deposits was the “least costly” resolution for the FDIC’s DIF compared to all alternatives. Bank of Illinois is the 24th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the third in Illinois. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was George Washington Savings Bank, Orland Park, on February 19, 2010.

Sun American Bank:

Sun American Bank, Boca Raton, Florida, was closed today by the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Raleigh, North Carolina, to assume all of the deposits of Sun American Bank.

The 12 branches of Sun American Bank will reopen on Monday as branches of First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company. Depositors of Sun American Bank will automatically become depositors of First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company. Deposits will continue to be insured by the FDIC, so there is no need for customers to change their banking relationship to retain their deposit insurance coverage. Customers should continue to use their existing branch until they receive notice from First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company that it has completed systems changes to allow other First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company branches to process their accounts as well.

This evening and over the weekend, depositors of Sun American Bank can access their money by writing checks or using ATM or debit cards. Checks drawn on the bank will continue to be processed. Loan customers should continue to make their payments as usual.

As of December 31, 2009, Sun American Bank had approximately $535.7 million in total assets and $443.5 million in total deposits. First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company did not pay a premium to acquire the deposits of Sun American Bank. In addition to assuming all of the deposits of the failed bank, First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company agreed to purchase essentially all of the assets.

The FDIC and First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company entered into a loss-share transaction on $433.0 million of Sun American Bank’s assets. First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company will share in the losses on the asset pools covered under the loss-share agreement. The loss-share transaction is projected to maximize returns on the assets covered by keeping them in the private sector. The transaction also is expected to minimize disruptions for loan customers.

Customers who have questions about today’s transaction can call the FDIC toll-free at 1-866-954-9532. The phone number will be operational this evening until 9:00 p.m., Eastern Standard Time (EST); on Saturday from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., EST; on Sunday from noon to 6:00 p.m., EST; and thereafter from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m., EST.

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $103.8 million. First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company’s acquisition of all the deposits was the “least costly” resolution for the FDIC’s DIF compared to all alternatives. Sun American Bank is the 23rd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the fourth in Florida. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Marco Community Bank, Marco Island, on February 19, 2010.

Centennial Bank:

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) approved the payout of the insured deposits of Centennial Bank, Ogden, Utah. The bank was closed today by the Utah Department of Financial Institutions, which appointed the FDIC as receiver.

The FDIC entered into an agreement with Zions First National Bank, Salt Lake City, Utah, to accept the failed bank’s direct deposits from the federal government, such as Social Security and Veterans’ payments.

The FDIC was unable to find another financial institution to take over the banking operations of Centennial Bank. As a result, checks to the retail depositors for their insured funds will be mailed on Monday. Brokered deposits will be wired once brokers provide the FDIC with the necessary documents to determine if any of their clients exceed the insurance limits. Customers who placed money with brokers should contact them directly for more information about the status of their funds.

As of December 31, 2009, Centennial Bank had approximately $215.2 million in total assets and $205.1 million in total deposits. At the time of closing, the bank had an estimated $1.8 million in uninsured funds. This amount is an estimate that is likely to change once the FDIC obtains additional information from these customers.

Customers who have questions about today’s transaction can call the FDIC toll-free at 1-800-889-4976. Customers with accounts in excess of $250,000 also should contact the toll-free number to set up an appointment to discuss their deposits. The phone number will be operational this evening until 9:00 p.m. Mountain Standard Time (MST); on Saturday from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. MST; and on Sunday from noon to 6:00 p.m. MST; and thereafter from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. MST.

Beginning on Monday, customers of Centennial Bank with deposits exceeding $250,000 at the bank may visit the FDIC’s Web page “Is My Account Fully Insured?” at https://www2.fdic.gov/drrip/afi/index.asp.

Centennial Bank is the 26th FDIC-insured institution to fail this year and the second in Utah since Barnes Banking Company, Kaysville, was closed on January 15, 2010. The FDIC estimates the cost of the failure to its Deposit Insurance Fund to be approximately $96.3 million.

Who saved the system?

Posted by Ray on January 24, 2010 under Main | Be the First to Comment

There is a lot of hot air coming out of Washington and the press about who saved the financial system over the past few months. The White House claims they saved the system, the press agrees, and others say Ben Bernanke saved the system, even though he caused or helped cause the problems. Others in Congress believe that they helped save the system, who knows how they think that. Out of all of these credit seeking entities it does raise the question of who really saved the system, for now.

As far as the White House is concerned, I cannot think of one legislative item they produced in the past year that directly did anything for the banking system, but they demand credit for the save. The fact of the matter is that TARP, for all of its flaws, did save the system and that was a Bush era solution. Obama and Geithner simply imposed a ‘stress’ test for the banking system, just an FYI on the stress test, we surpassed the ‘rigid demands of that test’ as far as unemployment and other economic hardships. It is safe to assume that the stress tests were a joke and meaningless other than a confidence booster. Outside of that particular item the administration simply spent trillions on pet projects through the stimulus bill, which is clearly a failure, and that is it. Obama had nothing to do with saving the system outside of his vote for TARP, period.

To think Obama or any Congress person did anything else to save the system is pure partisan politics. I am fine with people giving the credit to Obama, because it proves my point that people do not follow what is really going on and have the attention span of a nat. However, this is a double edge sward because nothing has changed within the system itself so are they going to take credit when this thing falls apart? I doubt it, but it will be interesting to watch them weasel their way out of it. It is also clear that the latest proposal to separate prop trading from banks proves that the current administration does not and never did understand what caused the problems to begin with. In short, they are empty on intellectual knowledge and packed full of the people who helped create the problem so they are all simply doing a major CYA right now.

Congress has done nothing for the system, sure we got show trials, but they just threw a bond broker in jail for selling AAA rated securities, talk about misplaced blame! The reality is one person saved the system, in my opinion, Ben Bernanke. Now, just because I am giving him credit for the save it does not mean I like him or his policies. Yes, he cleaned up, or started to, his own mess, but make no mistake about it, he caused or helped create the current mess. Ben denies that he had any responsibility in making the mess, but he did as he endorsed, feverishly, low interest rates for a prolonged period of time during the early 2000’s. He actively endorsed QE by other countries and, now, the US and did not realize that housing prices increasing at 10-20% a year were a bad thing, huh?

Ben did save the system, but he also is responsible for its demise at the same time, so how much credit can you really give him? I do not think Ben should be reappointed as he clearly has no forward looking vision as far as potential trouble in the economy. That is one reason why I find it funny that Ben ‘sees no bubbles’ in the US markets or economy now. Yes, I believe equities are in a bubble, I have always believed that, since there was no real fundamental reason for the markets to go from the March lows to 1,150 on the S&P and 10,600 on the Dow. The markets were due for a bounce as stocks were pricing in a financial system collapse, but not all the way back up to current levels. As it turns out we might be at the precipice of the much anticipated correction now, a weak currency and massive pumping up of the monetary system is not a good thing over the long-term and is why we saw such a rally.

Regardless, Ben believes the market’s reaction is normal which can be interpreted many different ways, the conspiracy minded will say that confirms the Fed is buying S&P futures, but I read it as Bernanke is just oblivious to reality as the market grinded its way higher, with no volume or flows from retail investors, away from the economic reality of the times. Green shoots are everywhere according to Ben, but consumer credit is contracting, housing is being propped up, unemployment is grinding higher, the national debt is increasing a scary rate, Greece, Ireland, and other European countries are on the verge of default, Dubai did default, banks will not lend and hiring is minuscule at best. Sure we saw some GDP growth, government induced, and some areas, technology, look promising, but other than that there is no fundamental good economic data to support the current market levels.

It is clear that the pricing in of all the good news has already happened, Intel released good earnings and it sold off, the same with IBM and a host of other firms. Just because the market goes up does not mean everything is fine or that the market is forward looking, it is not. If the market was a good forward indicator we would not have sharp corrections because the market would always know in advance. If the market was forward looking we would not have seen the Dow hit 14,000 in the fall of 2007 when all the warning signs were clear as a bell, the Fed was dumping hundreds of billions of dollars into the overnight markets. What I am saying is I am happy if you are long and made money, but just because you made money and the market is trading at irrational levels it does not mean it is correct. The market is also not a forward looking instrument, so stop saying it is.

At the end of the day it was only Ben who saved the system pushing rates to zero, putting together those funding programs, TALF and such, but he did this at a price. By moving rates to zero he forced savers out of secure investments into higher risk assets so firms can refinance their garbage and give it to safety seeking investors because they have nowhere to turn for yield. Ben has expanded the balance sheet to new weekly records for the past year and it will continue to grow indefinitely, at this rate. Ben has started QE and it looks like he cannot stop those programs without a huge amount of pain to everyone, so it will continue forever. Ben has risked the entire future of the USA by putting the central bank in a position to permanently devalue the dollar, part of the ultimate goal I might add, and by taking excessive credit risk.

Ben just might have put the country at greater risk than the banks did in the previous 10 years. While I know deflation is in the works for the foreseeable future it is only a matter of time before inflation does hit or we are forced to openly devalue the dollar. All because Ben saved the system for a few bankers who we could have lived without as smaller institutions would have stepped up to the plate. To re-nominate this guy is the single worst idea I have ever heard. To give credit to Obama for saving the system is laughable at best, just because we want to have a beer with the guy does not change the fact that his policies are horrible and he has done nothing in his first year in office. We have to stop being influenced by what we want to believe and look at the facts on the ground. Those facts tell us Washington and the Fed have failed, end of story.

Venezuela, a sign of things to come?

Posted by Ray on January 12, 2010 under Main | Be the First to Comment

I am watching the happenings in Venezuela carefully as this might be an indication of things to come in the US. While most people naively think that “it can never happen here” I would like to warn you that every country where these things have happened uttered that exact same phrase. Whether it happens because the Federal Reserve loses control over the devaluation of the USD or because foreign debt buyers just stop buying US debt the one thing I am sure of is that it can and will happen here at some point in the future.

What I am talking about is massive devaluation of the currency which leads to inflation or, in this case, hyperinflation. I have stated that for the moment we do not have to worry about inflation, and I stand by that prediction, for now, at some point we will have to cleanse our demons and massive balance sheet. The one and only thing that is saving us right now from inflation is our pitiful employment situation, which is not getting any better I might add. Without employment there will not be wage inflation and we will continue to have subdued demand for products with the exception of food and energy.

Even though I fully believe deflation is here for the near-term, reinforced by the Fed itself, there is one caveat to my prediction, the devaluation of the USD. I have made no secret that I believe that the Fed and the current administration, along with the former administration, have had an unofficial policy of maintaining a weak dollar. The reason for the weak dollar policy is simple, it boosts GDP and earnings in a globalized world along with a host of other seemingly positive economic stimulus. However, a weak dollar is not good long-term for a country and hurts the population as dollar sensitive products become very expensive, i.e. $140 a barrel oil marks the low point of the USD in 2008, and is inflationary without the benefit of actual inflation.

Let me explain, inflation created by excess money printing usually enters the banking system and is loaned out to the population. This is called money velocity and creates too many dollars chasing too few of goods. However, without money velocity traditional inflation cannot happen, but even if the excess money printing does not enter the economy it can still devalue the currency based on the future expectation of it entering the system. This is what was happening up until the last dollar rally and I would like to point out that the last dollar rally was because, depending on who you listen to, short covering, fear about sovereign default (i.e. people were afraid of another systemic meltdown which, in turn, initiated short covering. This is the scenario I favor), or people felt the Fed was actually going to raise interest rates which is absurd, in my opinion.

The dollar devaluation that we have seen explains why oil prices are on the rise as demand simply is not there. It also explains why metals have also climbed for most of 2009 as well. What is scary about both oil and metals going up, especially in 4Q09, are the fact that these prices increased in the face of a stronger dollar which is counterintuitive. Well, it is for gold at least as oil could increase with a strong dollar if there is sufficient demand, but, frankly, there is not as much demand as the price indicates. Regardless, rising energy prices when the economy is weak, to me, is a warning sign of a problem and should forewarn you of things to come, inflation.

If we continue with our insanity that Washington and the Fed is telling us we need it is inevitable that we will end up in a situation like Venezuela where we will either willingly or unwillingly have to devalue our currency. There are pluses to devaluation as your debt, assuming a fixed interest rate, will remain static and your earnings will eventually increase allowing you to pay off your debt faster. However, the negatives outweigh the positives by a long shot as your savings are worthless. This is why we saw the people of Venezuela go out and buy everything they could because goods will be worth more than the paper money.

What is disturbing though is the fact that even though devaluation creates higher prices the Venezuelan government shutdown some stores for “price gouging” which is humorous, in a sick way. The government intentionally creates inflation to make their balance sheet look better, but because new goods will cost more stores cannot compensate by charging more for products they currently have. How in the world are these stores supposed to stay in business or id the governments point to put them out of business? The next logical question to ask is how would this type of scenario play out in the US?

While we do not really have any past history to use as a bench market I think what we see happening in Venezuela is probably a very good example. Right down to the black markets that are more than likely popping up all over the place to provide goods and services the population cannot receive from the usual sources. What I would be interested in knowing is if these black markets are using another medium of exchange, i.e. US dollars, gold, silver, Euros, whatever it might be, to pay for these goods and services. I would be inclined to believe that is what is happening, but there is simply no proof and I am willing to bet no one wants to openly talk about such things for obvious reasons.

What is usually accompanied with this type of devaluation is the government imposing its will that its citizens continue to use its currency no matter what. We saw this happen in Zimbabwe, but just like in Zimbabwe the black market switched over to an alternative payment system, gold. It is important to note that gold is being used because dollars or other currencies simply are not plentiful in the country and gold can be mined, of course gold has also been used as currency for thousands of years as well and at current prices a little bit goes a long way. Basically, forced price controls and forced use of devalued, or worthless, currencies simply do not work, that type of system never has in 4,000 years.

I am not suggesting the US or Venezuela will turn into Zimbabwe, but I am saying that we are facing certain financial Armageddon at some point in the future. All the US has managed to do is kick the can further down the road for others to manage and we are running out of road, unfortunately. We will have only a few choices in the very near future and the most obvious, because it is politically easier, is to inflate our way out of our problems. While this seems like a good idea I am thinking that the 77 million soon to be retired Baby Boomers who are about to be living on a fixed income will like this strategy. However, it is unlikely that they will like the alternative either, much higher taxes, less Social Security and steep cuts in Medicare.

We live in unique times and the one certainty we have is that there is no certainty of anything. I do not believe that there is any question of whether or not we will follow Venezuela, in my mind it is only a matter of when it will happen, not if. However, before we go down that road you will be comforted in knowing that Japan or the UK will more than likely go down that path before us as they are in worse shape than the US. Regardless, watching what happens now will give you an idea of what could happen here and is also why I am a big proponent of investing in precious metals.

So far holding gold, silver, platinum or palladium has been a very sound move on my part, but I actually hope that these investments turn out to be horrible for me because that will mean I was wrong about the future of the US monetary system. While I might be wrong what concerns me is that there are many people who are a lot smarter than I who are sounding the same alarm I am. I would also like to not be naïve enough to believe that “it could never happen here” either because I am sure there are millions of people throughout history who would tell us that you should never, ever, utter those words because no person or country is special.