Those who read my material know that I am a bull on precious metals and have been for some time. The main reason is because over the long-term the Federal Reserve intentionally devalues the dollar, its buying power is down some 95% since 1914. The most recent reason to be bullish on commodities as a whole is because of Obama’s plan to double exports within 5 years. This is a lofty and unachievable goal unless you plan on devaluing the dollar. Based on our debt load the devaluation of our currency will happen whether we like it or not.
I have been more bullish on silver and palladium over the recent months. I started buying silver at $9/oz and palladium at about $230/oz so I have hefty gains already, but I believe this is only the beginning. With both of these metals you are playing both a global recovery, which I see happening, but not as robust as the talking heads claim, or if you believe the world is going to end. Either way, you should own these metals, perhaps wait until they selloff in the near future, but nevertheless, why wouldn’t you own them?
Silver is used in almost everything you have in your house, from your TV to your cell phone. Silver is also going to be under tremendous pressure in the near future as the global population grows and people are lifted out of poverty because everyone wants a cell phone, computer or even a mirror, yes silver is used in mirrors as it is the most reflective metal in the world. Silver is a dual purpose metal as it is used in industry and as a store of wealth. The Chinese and Japanese used a silver based currency in the 20th century along with the U.S. as a bi-metal currency. Regardless, whether you think the world is going to end, own silver, or whether you believe in a global recovery, buy silver. Surface supplies are dwindling and all the easy silver has been mined. Combine that information with a growing population and we are bound, rather soon I suspect, to have a shortage in the supply/demand curve. Silver is an easy sell.
Palladium has been on fire lately moving up from $420/oz to $545/oz as of today, it was up $25 today alone! Palladium is used as an industrial metal first, mainly in catalytic converters, but it also is used in jewelry and as a precious metal, it was only recently that this usage has grown. Palladium is also a “green metal” as it can be used in several clean energy items, hydrogen cars for example. In short, it is a cheap alternative to its bigger brother platinum. Believe it or not, palladium is rarer than platinum and the largest world supplier of palladium is Russia.
I personally believe Russia is a pretty volatile place, I think history proves that point, which means the supply of palladium can be reduced if Russia throws a temper tantrum. There is always the possibility that Russia does something we do not like, like go to full war with Chechnya or invade Georgia, the country not the state. We could also upset Russia as well by invading, say, Iran, North Korea whoever which could create tension between the U.S. and Russia which could lead to less exportation of palladium to the U.S. If that happened prices would go through the roof.
The big story with palladium is the growth of automobiles in India and China. Between the 2 countries there are over 2B people who are being lifted from poverty to the middle class. As they ascend from poverty they will want what we have, cars. This means lots of catalytic converters in lower cost cars. Ultimately this means they will use less platinum and more palladium, regardless of where it comes from. All of this is a bull case for the metal and I think it could go much higher over time.
I believe the metal will be volatile, silver as well, because of the ETF’s designed to buy both metals. These ETF’s are likely the reason we see prices climbing recently so it is tough to know if the demand for the metals is organic or artificial, for investment purposes. Eventually people will sell PALL or SLV which will cause the prices to drop and that is the time to buy, IMHO. Also, if the dollar strengthens, which is what I think will happen, prices will drop then to. However, long-term I believe both metals are the trade of the century.
I am in no rush to sell what I have and am an active buyer, even at these levels. If you do a Google search for palladium coins or bullion you will see the supply is tiny. You can get palladium bullion, but you will pay a hefty premium for it. This is because supply is so limited and, as we know, you cannot just make more natural resources so the supply is finite. The price action is very exciting to those of us holding the metal already and what I like is the media never pays attention to either metal, never palladium though. Today with a 5% rise in value, no one said a thing, but if it was gold we would hear all about it, mostly negative things and gold bug jokes.
Silver and palladium are no joke and one should consider owning them. At the very least it is diversification especially if you own PM’s already. I am sure there is a bear case out there for both these metals, but I cannot find one that is reasonable.
We are not talking about bailing out Citi or Bank of America, but whole countries now. What is wrong with this story? Greece is a tiny portion of the EU’s GDP and has always been a problem child for Europe, but this is insanity. What happens is Greece gets bailed out will the EU bailout the rest of the PIIGS as well? They would have to because no matter what deal you give Greece those other countries will demand similar treatment.
This is how moral hazard develops into a currency crisis because you cannot be selective on who you bailout and let the rest fail. It is also an extremely complex problem since none of these countries can print their way out of this mess. Typically, a country in these types of problems would simply devalue its currency and be done with it, but the PIIGS cannot do this under EU rules. If they drop out of the EU they are stuck with debt priced in Euros which would utterly destroy the country forcing a true default. There is simply no way out for these countries and we may be seeing the whole EU dissolve right in front of our eyes.
The ramifications for what is going on are enormous to say the least. From my lens it looks and feels like a currency crisis in the making as the entire EU is becoming unstable at best. Germany cannot single handedly hold up the Euro nor can they bailout all of the problem children in the group. The charter of the European Union, as Rosenberg pointed out today this was one of the latest versions of a European Union, the others failed, does not allow for countries to be bailed out. However, an individual country can help out its neighbor if it so desired. This was the rumor today, Germany was going to bailout Greece, but that would have killed the German Bund, which reacted negatively to the news.
The reason why the EU proper cannot bailout of country was established for a reason. Bailing out a country would mean a devaluation of the Euro currency and the EU wanted individual countries to be held responsible for their own troubles. The interesting thing is that Greece totally benefited from the EU versus what it contributed to the rest of the union. However, their benefit was to the detriment of the union itself. Regardless, think about it a country needs a bailout and people think this is not a big deal?
This is probably one of the biggest deals I can think of especially as it is hitting the Euro as hard as it is. I have been expecting a currency crisis for some time now, but always figured it would be the UK followed by either the US or Japan. It does appear that the Euro is first and this is a major problem for everyone, whether you realize it or not. Think about 1997 when Thailand devalued its Baht and what happened there and then magnify that problem by 1000 and you can begin to see the problem this situation can become. I would be very cautious on what you do with your money at this stage of the game, this rally is low quality and based on rumor. I am keeping my shorts.
I am watching the happenings in Venezuela carefully as this might be an indication of things to come in the US. While most people naively think that “it can never happen here” I would like to warn you that every country where these things have happened uttered that exact same phrase. Whether it happens because the Federal Reserve loses control over the devaluation of the USD or because foreign debt buyers just stop buying US debt the one thing I am sure of is that it can and will happen here at some point in the future.
What I am talking about is massive devaluation of the currency which leads to inflation or, in this case, hyperinflation. I have stated that for the moment we do not have to worry about inflation, and I stand by that prediction, for now, at some point we will have to cleanse our demons and massive balance sheet. The one and only thing that is saving us right now from inflation is our pitiful employment situation, which is not getting any better I might add. Without employment there will not be wage inflation and we will continue to have subdued demand for products with the exception of food and energy.
Even though I fully believe deflation is here for the near-term, reinforced by the Fed itself, there is one caveat to my prediction, the devaluation of the USD. I have made no secret that I believe that the Fed and the current administration, along with the former administration, have had an unofficial policy of maintaining a weak dollar. The reason for the weak dollar policy is simple, it boosts GDP and earnings in a globalized world along with a host of other seemingly positive economic stimulus. However, a weak dollar is not good long-term for a country and hurts the population as dollar sensitive products become very expensive, i.e. $140 a barrel oil marks the low point of the USD in 2008, and is inflationary without the benefit of actual inflation.
Let me explain, inflation created by excess money printing usually enters the banking system and is loaned out to the population. This is called money velocity and creates too many dollars chasing too few of goods. However, without money velocity traditional inflation cannot happen, but even if the excess money printing does not enter the economy it can still devalue the currency based on the future expectation of it entering the system. This is what was happening up until the last dollar rally and I would like to point out that the last dollar rally was because, depending on who you listen to, short covering, fear about sovereign default (i.e. people were afraid of another systemic meltdown which, in turn, initiated short covering. This is the scenario I favor), or people felt the Fed was actually going to raise interest rates which is absurd, in my opinion.
The dollar devaluation that we have seen explains why oil prices are on the rise as demand simply is not there. It also explains why metals have also climbed for most of 2009 as well. What is scary about both oil and metals going up, especially in 4Q09, are the fact that these prices increased in the face of a stronger dollar which is counterintuitive. Well, it is for gold at least as oil could increase with a strong dollar if there is sufficient demand, but, frankly, there is not as much demand as the price indicates. Regardless, rising energy prices when the economy is weak, to me, is a warning sign of a problem and should forewarn you of things to come, inflation.
If we continue with our insanity that Washington and the Fed is telling us we need it is inevitable that we will end up in a situation like Venezuela where we will either willingly or unwillingly have to devalue our currency. There are pluses to devaluation as your debt, assuming a fixed interest rate, will remain static and your earnings will eventually increase allowing you to pay off your debt faster. However, the negatives outweigh the positives by a long shot as your savings are worthless. This is why we saw the people of Venezuela go out and buy everything they could because goods will be worth more than the paper money.
What is disturbing though is the fact that even though devaluation creates higher prices the Venezuelan government shutdown some stores for “price gouging” which is humorous, in a sick way. The government intentionally creates inflation to make their balance sheet look better, but because new goods will cost more stores cannot compensate by charging more for products they currently have. How in the world are these stores supposed to stay in business or id the governments point to put them out of business? The next logical question to ask is how would this type of scenario play out in the US?
While we do not really have any past history to use as a bench market I think what we see happening in Venezuela is probably a very good example. Right down to the black markets that are more than likely popping up all over the place to provide goods and services the population cannot receive from the usual sources. What I would be interested in knowing is if these black markets are using another medium of exchange, i.e. US dollars, gold, silver, Euros, whatever it might be, to pay for these goods and services. I would be inclined to believe that is what is happening, but there is simply no proof and I am willing to bet no one wants to openly talk about such things for obvious reasons.
What is usually accompanied with this type of devaluation is the government imposing its will that its citizens continue to use its currency no matter what. We saw this happen in Zimbabwe, but just like in Zimbabwe the black market switched over to an alternative payment system, gold. It is important to note that gold is being used because dollars or other currencies simply are not plentiful in the country and gold can be mined, of course gold has also been used as currency for thousands of years as well and at current prices a little bit goes a long way. Basically, forced price controls and forced use of devalued, or worthless, currencies simply do not work, that type of system never has in 4,000 years.
I am not suggesting the US or Venezuela will turn into Zimbabwe, but I am saying that we are facing certain financial Armageddon at some point in the future. All the US has managed to do is kick the can further down the road for others to manage and we are running out of road, unfortunately. We will have only a few choices in the very near future and the most obvious, because it is politically easier, is to inflate our way out of our problems. While this seems like a good idea I am thinking that the 77 million soon to be retired Baby Boomers who are about to be living on a fixed income will like this strategy. However, it is unlikely that they will like the alternative either, much higher taxes, less Social Security and steep cuts in Medicare.
We live in unique times and the one certainty we have is that there is no certainty of anything. I do not believe that there is any question of whether or not we will follow Venezuela, in my mind it is only a matter of when it will happen, not if. However, before we go down that road you will be comforted in knowing that Japan or the UK will more than likely go down that path before us as they are in worse shape than the US. Regardless, watching what happens now will give you an idea of what could happen here and is also why I am a big proponent of investing in precious metals.
So far holding gold, silver, platinum or palladium has been a very sound move on my part, but I actually hope that these investments turn out to be horrible for me because that will mean I was wrong about the future of the US monetary system. While I might be wrong what concerns me is that there are many people who are a lot smarter than I who are sounding the same alarm I am. I would also like to not be naïve enough to believe that “it could never happen here” either because I am sure there are millions of people throughout history who would tell us that you should never, ever, utter those words because no person or country is special.
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