SNL Financial came out with a report today that said 90 banks have missed at least 1 TARP dividend payment, that is about 11% of all TARP recipients have defaulted for those of you keeping count. Keep in mind that about 829 institutions received TARP funds and about 50+ have repaid TARP funds, mostly the big name institutions that we all know and love. What is critical to note is that the defaults, I would call missing a payment a default since banks call a borrower who misses a payment to be in default, are increasing, not decreasing, as we approach the 2 year anniversary of the historic TARP legislation.
What that tells me is that not everything is fine when we are 2 years into the largest bailout in the history of bailouts and we have banks defaulting, remember only the “strongest banks” were getting bailed out, and bank closures accelerating as well. All of this while the pundits talk about “the greatest V shaped recovery in history” which is laughable. If we were in recovery mode wouldn’t these banks be earning their way out of this mess? They have the greatest accounting gimmick, mark to model, at their disposal and they are defaulting and being taken over by regulators at an increasing rate, how can that be? Perhaps the system is not as strong as we are told, that sounds about right to me.
We have to face the facts and the fact is that the data does not lie, banks are defaulting and failing. Real estate prices, both residential and, especially, commercial are falling which means more problems for banks. The banking industry as a whole is much larger than Citi, Bank of America and JP Morgan, and I am hard pressed to make the statement that those banks are largely benefiting from proprietary trading, government bond underwriting and the ability to mark to model. In other words, the bailout failed with the exception of the too big to fails and, as we already knew, the bailout was really just a selective bailout anyhow. How could Bear, Sterns be allowed to be acquired, but Lehman fail? Just days after Lehman fails AIG gets bailed out, the proof is pretty overwhelming about the selectivity of the bailouts, in my opinion, and TARP was designed to make the big banks flourish and the rest of the banks, well who cares because no one cares about the rest of the banks. I mean, who ever heard of Midwest Banc Holdings anyhow, except for the depositors.
So, as the ECB gets ready to release useless stress test results, which I am sure will show Greek and Spanish banks in trouble, but everything else hunky dory, consider the fact that our stress test and bailouts were completely and utterly useless. In other words, if you cannot trust our results, it has taken almost 2 years for the failures to show up, how can you trust the ECB’s results? Geithner knows this which is why he pushed for the stress test. He knew you can fool the markets for a little while with useless stress test and a seemingly huge bailout fund. However, the results cannot be hidden forever and our results are public, for those willing to look for the statistics, and prove that their strategy just kicks the can down the road and still leads to failure. Unless you consider accelerating defaults and closures a success, I am sure some talking head somewhere will see it as a stunning success, but in the real world most people see escalating failure for what it is, failure.
Everyone is on bubble watch nowadays, me included, as central banks flood their respective countries with mountains of money. While the US has done a ton of printing of dollars it is often overlooked that the Chinese have also printed a ton of Yuan as well. While there are definite differences in the economies of the US and China, we could argue those difference all day long, the one thing we could all agree on is that China a lot of flaws in its system. I would counter by saying their flaws are probably pretty severe, but no worse than the US.
Regardless, I have been reading a lot about the bubble in China, especially in their real estate prices. I do not doubt that as property values have gone parabolic in the country, some areas make the peak price increases in the US look like pathetic in comparison, but is it the same bubble that the US had? The answer is, no one really knows for sure because the data is spotty at best. My guess is that the price bubble is probably worse than the US, but I am willing to bet that mortgage fraud, home equity loans, securitization and the host of other issues that basically collapsed the world economy are not the same, at all.
So, at the end of the day, we will see a price collapse in China which will lead banks to have losses on their books, but it will end there. It will likely be as bad as the early 1990’s in the US banking system compared to the 2008 collapse that the US had and it will more than likely not spread globally like the US credit collapse did. However, it is problematic for the world to have the second, it surely has beat out Japan by now, largest economy approach a huge bubble so early in its quest for world domination, especially when it is the manufacturing center of the world.
If the bubble pops, which it will, it will take capital to fix which means that money will not be loaned out to manufacturers. When that happens the cost of capital will increase driving up prices which means your trip to Walmart will not be as cheap as it once was, especially if Washington forces the Chinese to strengthen its Yuan as well. That will be a problem for us and the rest of the world as China led the world out of the recession, if you believe it is actually over that is, so if China contracts it will lead the world right back into a recession, or make the one we are in even worse.
It is just interesting that Americans always assume that everyone acts like they do and spend all of their money. The Chinese are fanatical savers and it is highly unlikely that they would leverage their home, i.e. home equity loans or lines of credit, to buy junk they simply do not need like Americans do. I remember when Lay’s potato chips were trying to make headway into China and one women interviewed said why would I spend that kind of money on that when the same money can buy me potatoes for a month? That is their mentality and they do not spend what we do not have and pay for it later like what we do, that is what I admire about their culture. This is why if or when the bubble pops it will be a major problem, but nothing like what we saw here or in Europe.
With that in mind I am not crazy about investing in China because I believe that the bubble will pop and it will slow their growth down dramatically. Depending how the government handles the issue it could be a nonevent or a huge problem with, believe it or not, political instability. Plus, so much money has flowed into China through BRIC’s it is kind of crazy to keep money there right now. I am way more interested in India and Russia than China and Brazil, but all emerging markets have me a bit nervous because when everyone agrees that is where you should be, well, you know, do the opposite. Regardless, I believe the bubble will pop, but before the China bubble pops the US equity bubble will pop first.
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